What’s Ahead Inflation or Deflation? Safest Bet, Pay Off Debts Now
Tuesday, August 24th, 2010Americans have feared coming inflation for some time now. We’ve heard all the warnings from economists and pundits. After all, we can’t possibly sustain the current debt load. Instead of exercising fiscal prudence, the federal government acts more like a rich debutante on Rodeo Drive armed with her Daddy’s credit card.
But what happens when the credit limit is maxed out? We can then expect the Fed to print money. And printing money creates inflation.
Should we hedge inflation by reallocating investments and retirement savings? Or should we just stock up on toilet paper and other non-perishables before they become luxury items?
Before you empty the Walmart shelves, you might want to consider another scenario. The Wall Street Journal reports in two separate articles this month (August 7, 2010, “How to Beat Deflation” and Aug. 18, 2010, “What Deflation Means for Your Money”) that deflation may be on the horizon. This scenario also makes sense.
Jobless claims hover around 10%. The stock market reacts in a downward spiral, companies spend and invest less, and workers see wages cut. Less spending equals less money in circulation so prices stagnate. Companies lose profits, cut jobs, benefits, and wages. The cycle continues and we have deflation.
Faced with two opposite scenarios, how can we possibly know what to do? Taking any one approach to the extreme would probably be a mistake. We don’t know what will happen. It might not be a bad idea to talk to a financial advisor about reallocating some stocks into more secure markets, or even into proven stocks that produce more necessities than luxury items. But even this is no guarantee. The stock market is always a gamble.
Even in an economy that may be spinning out of control there may be one thing you can do now: Pay down your debt as quickly as possible.
In his article “What Deflation Means for Your Money”, (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 18, 2010) Brett Arends gives a great explanation of deflation and the best way to gain some protection now. While he gives advice regarding bonds and stock purchases, I believe his best recommendation is to pay down your debt now. He points out that increasing income is crucial during deflation.
But how do you increase income when the money just isn’t there? Decrease spending. This puts more money in your pocket, increasing available income. Let’s say you pay $200 a month for a student loan. If you can pay that off now, you’ve added $200 to your pocket, or just given yourself a $200 a month raise.
But what if inflation hits? I still believe paying down debt is a win-win situation – just make sure you are also putting money aside for emergencies. Inflation would likely spike interest rates. You could wind up paying 20% interest on credit card expenses, making it even tougher to make ends meet in a bad economy. Suddenly the outdated Nintendo that you intended to pay for over three months doesn’t seem so appealing.
Whether inflation or deflation occurs, decreasing debt seems to be the wisest move. Cut back on discretionary spending and put it towards any debt payment or savings. For some families, this may seem impossible. In that case, do what you can. Even the smallest step, is a step in the right direction, allowing you to take some control in an uncertain world.
The economy could go into a double-dip recession, we could lose our jobs, or our wages could be cut. But as a whole, Americans are resilient. As parents, we cannot give up hope. But I’m not fatalistic enough to rely on hope. We must carve out our own destiny and that requires action. So do what you can to protect yourself. Decreasing debt load and increasing savings to the best of our abilities, are sensible and responsible actions.




